The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
Simplifying investment policies at the micro level and introducing a time-bound framework will be critical for India's growth targets, notes Krishna Ella.
A higher level of private sector financing and resource mobilisation from new sources will be crucial for India to build quality infrastructure, according to the Economic Survey 2023-24. The Economic Survey 2023-24 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
From almost 60 per cent as of December 2019, the share of liquidations in the mode of closure of total Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) cases came down to 44 per cent till September 2023, data by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) shows. Experts say the decreasing trend in liquidations under the IBC in India can be largely attributed to the initial economic conditions of companies entering the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP). IBC experts also say the trend shows a certain stabilisation in IBC with the Code now rid of legacy bankruptcy issues.
Trading activity of foreign investors and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. Leading stock exchanges BSE and NSE have declared a trading holiday on November 20 for assembly elections in Maharashtra. Elections to the 288-member state legislative assembly will be held on November 20, and votes will be counted on November 23.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
China has defended its plan to build the world's largest dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, assuring that the project will not affect riparian states and safety issues have been addressed through decades of studies. The dam, estimated to cost USD 137 billion, has raised concerns in India and Bangladesh, but Chinese authorities maintain that the project has been thoroughly studied and safeguards are in place. The dam is part of China's efforts to develop clean energy and respond to climate change.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Google's chief privacy officer, Keith Enright, has warned policymakers that frequent and large-scale sharing of citizen data, even if anonymized, can damage users' privacy. Pointing to research that shows data sets lose their anonymity if shared consistently over time, he said: "I would encourage policymakers and companies to be extremely circumspect while proceeding in that direction." Anonymization is a technique that removes or modifies personally identifiable information, resulting in data that cannot be associated with any one individual.
'A less tense US-China relationship would make Beijing less likely to provoke India -- including on the border -- in retaliation for its close defence ties with the US.'
Dr Jaishankar is expected to discuss the dates for the fifth Quad leaders' summit in India later this year.
The recent depreciation of the rupee along with sharp fall in the country's foreign exchange (FX) reserves has sparked a debate whether stability of the exchange rate is necessary and desirable. The rupee was one of the least volatile currencies among peers for almost two years before the current downward pressure started in September after the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rate.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the 11th time in a row but sharply lowered the GDP growth forecast to 6.6 per cent for the current fiscal, as against earlier projection of 7.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained the status quo on interest rate despite July-September quarter GDP growth falling to 7-quarter low of 5.4 per cent, as against its own projection of 7 per cent.
Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
From the 30 blue-chip pack, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, Nestle and ICICI Bank were the biggest gainers. State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Zomato, UltraTech Cement and HCL Tech were among the laggards.
Gold prices tumbled by Rs 3,350 to Rs 72,300 per 10 grams in the local market in New Delhi on Tuesday amid subdued demand by jewellers after the government announced the customs duty cut on the yellow metal and silver to 6 per cent.
India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has arrived in Beijing for a two-day visit during which he will hold talks with Chinese officials. The visit comes amid ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and to resume bilateral cooperation in various fields, including the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
With the rapid evolution of channels like quick-commerce and the emergence of ONDC, the Indian retail industry is 'cautiously optimistic' for 2025, in which new-age technologies such as AI and automation will play a crucial role, driving efficiency and personalisation.
Inflation data, global trends and foreign fund trading activity would guide equity market movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Stock markets would remain closed on Tuesday for Independence Day. "Macroeconomic indicators, rupee and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Since November 2022, sectoral, midcap, and smallcap funds have collectively added nearly 39 million folios, which is 65 per cent of the total additions to equity funds over the past two years.
Canada's foreign direct investment (FDI) into India doubled after the pandemic years even as India's own investments into Canada show signs of slackening in recent years. The cumulative equity FDI inflows from Canada rose from $1.8 billion in March 2019 to $3.9 billion in March 2024, shows data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). The overall share is up from 0.42 per cent to 0.57 per cent during the same period, suggesting that Canadian FDI grew faster than overall FDI during this period
The Centre for Democracy, Pluralism and Human Rights (CDPHR) on Friday presented a report on the state of minorities in Bangladesh following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.
Novice investors must understand that volatility is an inherent part of equity markets and learn to navigate through such phases.
At a time when the government is nudging the private sector to ramp up its capital expenditure (capex), the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is poised to kick-start the first-of-its-kind annual survey on the status of private sector capex from next month. "The inaugural edition of the annual exercise will start in October and will be completed by December. "The results will be made public by February next year," said Geeta Singh Rathore, director general, National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), at a data users' conference on Thursday.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 22,420 crore from the Indian equity market so far this month, owing to high domestic stock valuations, increasing allocations to China, and the rising US dollar as well as Treasury yields. With this sell-off, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have recorded a total outflow of Rs 15,827 crore in 2024 so far. As liquidity tightens, FPI inflows are expected to remain subdued in the short term.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
Inequality in India has skyrocketed since early 2000s, with the income and wealth share of top 1 per cent population rising to 22.6 per cent and 40.1 per cent, respectively, in 2022-23, according to a working paper. The paper titled 'Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj' said between 2014-15 and 2022-23, the rise of top-end inequality has been particularly pronounced in terms of wealth concentration.
The paint sector is seeing heightened competition with the entry of deep-pocketed groups like Aditya Birla and JSW. However, some brokerages see an opportunity in select stocks.
'They contest to ensure they win the election.'
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
'Within India, people want high-quality, personalised banking services, and the demand for such services has exploded.'
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
IT attrition rate is expected to be around 12% to 13% this year.
The Kerala unit of the Congress instantly gets a headache when Shashi Tharoor lets loose one of his observations showering flowers on enemy territory. With every such action triggering controversy within a nervous Congress party, some feel it is high time Tharoor showed a degree of solidarity with the ideals of his party, notes Shyam G Menon.
The poor performance of capital goods - a bellwether for future growth - has alarmed most analysts
